While media attention has been focussed on Prime
Minister Narendra Modi’s surprise Christmas rendezvous in Lahore with
Nawaz Sharif and the terrorist attack at the Pathankot airbase,
significant developments on the Nepal front have been taking place.
Nepal Prime Minister K.P. Oli telephoned Mr. Modi on New Year’s Eve to
convey his greetings for 2016 and informed him about his government’s
plans to move forward with the three-point package while undertaking
negotiations with the agitating Madhesi leaders of the Samyukta
Loktantrik Madhesi Morcha (SLMM). In response, Mr. Modi reiterated the
need to find durable solutions to Nepal’s political problems on the
basis of “consensus” and conveyed his greetings to the Nepali people for
2016.
Shift or drift?
However,
there are subtle changes of position underway. The first sign came on
December 21 following the decisions taken by the Nepali cabinet to
address the demands of the SLMM. The three-point package consists of
constitutional amendments on participation in the state organs on the
basis of “proportionate inclusiveness” and delineation of electoral
constituencies on the basis of population. Demarcation of provinces was
to be undertaken in a three-month period through a political mechanism
on the basis of consensus, and other demands — including those
pertaining to “citizenship” — are to be resolved through negotiation and
appropriate notification. Nepal’s Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Kamal
Thapa had already briefed External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj about
this road map during his visit to Delhi last month.
In
an official statement, India’s Ministry of External Affairs welcomed
these developments as “positive steps that help create the basis for a
resolution of the current impasse in Nepal”. The statement further urged
“all Nepali political forces to now demonstrate the necessary maturity
and flexibility” so that a resolution to the current crisis could be
found. The formal Indian statement has been followed by an informal
easing of supplies, particularly fuel and LPG, by using border-crossing
points other than the Raxaul-Birgunj crossing which remains blocked.
According
to the Nepal Oil Corporation, the sole petroleum importing agency, its
monthly imports were usually in the order of NPR 7 billion; these went
down to NPR 1.5 billion during October-November but have picked up again
and could reach NPR 4.5 billion during December-January. This would
imply that more than 50 per cent of the fuel supplies are now going
through legally, in addition to the cross-border smuggling activity
which has also picked up.
Growing list of demands
However,
the SLMM rejected the Oli government’s three-point package as
“inadequate” and declared that it fell far short of their 11-point
charter of demands. Originally, there were four principal demands —
demarcation of provinces which related to five districts, Sunsari, Jhapa
and Morang in the east and Kanchanpur and Kailali in the west;
restoring population as the primary criteria for electoral constituency
delimitation; proportional representation in government jobs; and issues
relating to citizenship. With rising political polarisation over recent
months and the inflexible approach adopted by the three principal
parties — Nepali Congress, Communist Party of Nepal (Unified
Marxist-Leninist) or UML and the Maoists — the list of demands has
grown. It now includes democratisation of the army and other security
agencies; restructuring of the judiciary; declaring Nepal a
multi-national state; equal status to other languages like Hindi and
Bhojpuri; a reference to the principle of “proportional representation”
in the section on Fundamental Rights and the establishment of a
constitutionally empowered Inclusion Commission to monitor
implementation of the proportional representation principle.
In
December, the four SLMM leaders — Mahant Thakur, Rajendra Mahato,
Upendra Yadav and Mahendra Rai Yadav — visited Delhi and cautioned that
the agitation was taking the shape of a movement. Unless their demands
were addressed in a timely manner, the movement could take a violent
turn and the demand for separatism would grow. Their feeling was that
the Oli government was not serious about reaching out and was keen to
push through the amendments and postpone resolution of other issues. The
import of this message was not lost on Delhi. The SLMM thought that
this would make Delhi tighten the screws and push the Nepali government
towards a comprehensive settlement; instead, worried about greater
violence in the Terai with an 1,800-km-long open border, Delhi reacted
differently, and as a result, differences have now emerged within the
SLMM. Mr. Mahato would like to continue with the agitation while others
are uncertain.
Division in the ranks
On
December 26, Mr. Mahato decided to do a dharna at the
Jogbani-Biratnagar crossing where truck movement had picked up and was
badly beaten up by the Nepal police. He is currently convalescing at
Medanta Hospital in Gurgaon. The other three did not join the dharna and
Mr. Mahato’s supporters are miffed that a condemnation of the attack on
their leader took so long coming.
Sensing an
opportunity, the Oli government reached out to the SLMM leadership for a
meeting in Kathmandu on January 3. Mr. Thakur, accompanied by
relatively junior leaders, attended. On his side, Mr. Oli was
accompanied by Nepali Congress president and former PM Sushil Koirala,
Maoist leader and former PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ and others.
Upendra Yadav and Mahendra Rai Yadav happened to be out of town. A week
earlier, the Oli government had set the wheels in motion for the
constitutional amendment process by formally tabling it in the Assembly.
At this stage, no dialogue was underway with the SLMM to get them on
board and in the debates that followed, Madhesi parties boycotted the
proceedings. On January 4, the Assembly concluded its deliberations and
after the mandated period of 72 hours for amendments to be tabled, will
begin voting on the amendments. PM Oli has proposed the setting up of a
task force to arrive at an agreed language for the amendments. Defence
Minister Bhim Rawal (UML), K.B. Mahara of the Maoists and Mahesh Acharya
(Nepali Congress) have been nominated by the three main parties; with
the clock ticking, the SLMM may fracture if individual leaders try to go
it alone in the task force.
Mending fences
PM
Oli has been adept at flaunting the China card. In October last year,
there was much fanfare about China supplying 1,000 metric tonnes of
petroleum products to alleviate the shortage. Considering that the
annual requirement is closer to a million tonnes, this is a tiny amount.
Also the infrastructure in terms of roads and bridges to the Tibet
border does not permit movement of heavy tankers and LPG bullets.
Nepal’s attempts at negotiating long-term agreements with China have not
gone very far. However, Nepali media had carried stories that Mr. Oli,
in a departure from past practice, would undertake his first foreign
trip to China instead of India. The only Nepali prime minister to have
done so was Mr. Prachanda in 2008. He, however, insisted that it was not
a bilateral visit as he was going to attend the closing ceremony of the
Beijing Olympics and his first official bilateral visit would be to
India. Apparently, in the telephone conversation on December 31, Mr.
Modi reiterated his invitation to Mr. Oli to visit India and the
missions have been directed to work out mutually convenient dates at the
earliest. However, Mr. Oli will find it difficult to visit Delhi unless
the border situation has returned to normal and movement of goods and
supplies has been restored. If the SLMM agitation is called off, he can
then claim with some justification that his nationalistic posture,
together with the anti-India rhetoric, has paid off. Given the strain
Mr. Modi’s “neighbourhood first” policy is under on the Pakistan front,
it is understandable that he would like Mr. Oli to stick to tradition.
How
did things reach such an impasse? The fact is that nobody thought that
the Madhesi agitation and the consequent restrictions on cross-border
movement of goods would last this long. As a result, nobody had a Plan B
and rhetoric replaced communication. With the key players losing
control, the situation went into a tailspin. The Oli government found it
convenient to stoke Nepali nationalism and deflect attention away from
its own incompetence by blaming India. The SLMM’s demands continued to
grow with no negotiations in sight and rising anti-Indianism hardly sat
well with Mr. Modi’s “neighbourhood first” diplomacy.
The
supply situation has now eased but the Oli government needs to offer a
healing hand to the Madhesis to get them on board. If he fails, he may
find it difficult to deal with the ensuing instability. The Madhesis
need to reach out to the Tharus and Janajatis, the other marginalised
groups. For India, the challenge is to give greater political content to
its engagement, rebuild trust with the Oli government, and revive the
positive sentiments generated by Prime Minister Modi’s visits in 2014.
Source:-The Hindu, 07-Jan-2016